What can you expect from Volkanovski in his next Featherweight bout?

Australia’s greatest UFC fighter of all time Alexander Volkanovski finds himself in a position to retake the featherweight title that has eluded him since 2024.

His defeat by knockout at the hands of Ilia Topuria during the main event at UFC 298 was a major blow to both his confidence and reputation, taking the fight on 11 days notice at 35 years old without being fully recovered from another loss to lightweight title holder Islam Makhachev did little to improve his chances.

And now we find ourselves in the same situation we have been in multiple times before, hoping, praying for another Volkanovski victory, to be able to see him wear that featherweight belt once again.

Volkanovski earned the belt against Max Holloway in December 2019.

Whilst his resume speaks for itself winning the belt in 2019 and holding it until late 2024, his form after back to back losses at UFC 294 and 298 respectively has been called into question.

Other writers such as Trent Reinsmith (Forbes) have wondered just how badly Volkanovskis advanced age of 36 and past fights will affect him in his article about the fight. Noting that past the age of 35 featherweight division fighters have never won the belt.

With that being said, Volkanovski’s skill cannot be called into question, his precision and timing on striking and versatility in his ability to defend a ground assault has led him to a record of 26 wins and 4 losses in his decorated career.

The history of the division should be ignored, because Volkanovski has defied historical traditions his whole career, with unlikely achievements such as three wins against Max Holloway who was considered the greatest featherweight of all time by many.

Wins against greats such as Jose Aldo, Chad Mendes and The Korean Zombie (Chan Sung Jung) have served to display his expansive skillset.

Yet in this fight we see something different, a younger fighter than him in Diego Lopes, with the striking aggression of a Topuria and the height advantage of a Makhachev both being 5"11 compared to Volkanovski who stands at 5"6.

Volkanovski and Lopes facing off at the UFC 314 press conference

Lopez holds an impressive record of 26 wins and 6 losses himself, with an eye popping 84 per cent finish rate. Importantly, only six of these fights have been in the UFC, his chance to compete for the belt pushed forwards by Topuria vacating the belt in February of this year.

Lopes’ aggressive style does not, however mean he cannot finish a whole fight. Whilst he will certainly chase an epic finish against Volkanovski for the spectacle, in his six fights, three have gone to decision. If allowed to build up strikes over time he can achieve a victory.

His five-inch height advantage thankfully does not translate to a considerable reach advantage over the former champion. In theory, this means Volkanovski can strike with him as much as needed, without worry of being kept at a significant distance.

Volkanovski is aware of the tough challenge posed by Lopes, at the UFC 314 press conference he noted “He is a very aggressive, dangerous fighter, obvious great jiu-jiutsu, power in the hands, always looking for the finish so you’ve got to respect that”.

Volkanovski has obviously done his research, but it will take more than that to secure a victory and re-capture the title.

Think back to 2007 if you will, when Georges St-Pierre lost the Welterweight title to Matt Serra, a massive underdog, in a shock upset. That disappointment changed something in him, his invincible status had been shattered, and with it, his confidence.

Fox Sports wrote on how St-Pierre was able to take a step back after his loss, recalibrate and change his mindset whilst developing his abilities. Allowing him to find a middle ground of sorts. One where he would not overestimate, nor underestimate an opponent for the rest of his fighting days.

St-Pierre during his fight with Serra

As we know, he would return, win back that Welterweight belt from his challenger and go on to defend it 9 times, a record. He would even win the Middleweight title in 2017 for good measure.

Sound familiar at all? What we will see during UFC 314 is a different Volkanovski, older, more deliberate in his approach and seasoned from his devastating recent losses.

Volkanovski knows how undying his fans support for him is, “I’ve been feeling the love so much the past year and even before that. I appreciate every single one of you,” he said during the UFC 314 press conference.

Volkanovski fights now not only for himself, but he fights for all his supporters. His calm confidence could be seen at the same press conference where he also stated, “I’m looking forward to putting on a show and getting that belt back.”

Another positive is the lack of emotionality surrounding the fight, no grievances between the competitor means he can keep a level head. An undying respect for his opponent's skill will be all that he has with him in the ring.

This new version of Volkanovski will expect an all out assault from Lopes and he will be ready. He has been here before. Most importantly, he does not have as much to prove as a first time belt winner in Lopes.

This writer predicts a second round finish from Volkanovski, he will lull Lopes into a false sense of security when he believes a big finish is near. He will then find a weak spot and he will strike true, after which, the UFC featherweight belt will return to Australia.