What 16 Rounds Of Footy Tells Us About Who’s Going To Be Premiers
- Dylan Padget
- Jul 4
- 3 min read
Updated: 7 days ago
The modern-day AFL media world loves analysis and loves a prediction. Footy is a game built on many moving parts, thousands of well thought-out, and also split-second decisions, and a fair amount of good and bad luck sprinkled in, that can have a dramatic impact on short and long-term outcomes.

But sometimes there are certain trends and indicators that offer some reliability in making predictions about where teams will finish, and who is ultimately likely to hold the Cup at season’s end.
This won't be one of those, but I did have some fun looking at where the Premiers over the last 10 seasons were sitting on the ladder after 16 rounds. As the AFL moves into Round 17 of the 2025 season, here’s what I found.
Premiers of THE LAST 10 Years and Their Position at round 16
YEAR | PREMIERS | LADDER POSITION AT ROUND 16 |
2015 | HAWTHORN HAWKS | 3RD |
2016 | WESTERN BULLDOGS | 4TH |
2017 | RICHMOND TIGERS | 6TH |
2018 | WEST COAST EAGLES | 3RD |
2019 | RICHMOND TIGERS | 6TH |
2020 | RICHMOND TIGERS | 4TH |
2021 | MELBOURNE DEMONS | 2ND |
2022 | GEELONG CATS | 2ND |
2023 | COLLINGWOOD MAGPIES | 1ST |
2024 | BRISBANE LIONS | 8TH |
TABLE 1- (AFLtables.2025) https://afltables.com/afl/seas/ladders/laddersyby.html
What the Table above tells us
Admittedly, over the last ten years, the AFL has changed rules, brought in Opening Round and Gather Round, and has tightened and tweaked rules around how the game is played, so teams over the years have had to win in many different ways.
Over the past decade, we have seen eight different Premiers — with the Richmond Tigers winning three, and not even they found themselves in the same spot at this stage of the season.

Moving from lowest to highest, in 2024, the Brisbane Lions found themselves in eighth spot heading into Round 17 on their way to the Premiership. In 2017 and 2019, the Tigers sat in sixth spot after 16.

In 2016 the Western Bulldogs were in fourth position after Round 16, before falling to seventh by season’s end, and then going on that miracle finals run. And in 2020, Richmond also ended this round in fourth place.
The Hawthorn Hawks in 2015 and West Coast Eagles in 2018 were both placed in 3rd in their Premiership years, and the Melbourne Demons and Geelong Cats were both second on the ladder in the years they won the flag: 2021 and 2022 respectively.
So at this point, it seems pretty evident that you need to be at least in the eight to have any chance, and really, it can be achieved from anywhere in the eight. And more often than not, first on the ladder at this point of the season, might not be the best place to be.
Only one team has held top spot at this point of the season and ended up wining the flag, and that was Collingwood in 2023, the current ladder leaders in 2025.

Seven out of 10 Premiers were in the top four heading into Round 17, so clearly, it helps to be up the top end with a couple of months of footy to go. No one’s managed to get it done from either seventh or fifth — likely an anomaly, but is there something about these positions that puts a line through you at Round 17? Hawthorn and the Bulldogs filled those spots, and both have a legitimate shot in 2025.
Our thoughts and predictions for the rest of 2025
The 2025 AFL Premiership season is tight between second and ninth. Only a game and a half or percentage splits them. Collingwood has started to kick away, two and half games clear on top, with a healthy percentage of 135.8 per cent, the second highest in the competition.
On that basis, I’m backing the ladder leaders to repeat their performance from 2023, and win the Premiership from their first placed position after 16 rounds. But based on the last 10 years, of those most likely to knock them off, the Cup either heads back up to Brisbane, across to Adelaide, or down to the Cattery. Buckle up for a big finish to Season 2025.
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